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Oil Supply Fears Sparked by Morgan Stanley

Oil prices soared at the end of the week amidst a report from Morgan Stanley that in a month’s time oil will reach 150/barrel. The question everyone is asking, who gave Morgan Stanley the big money to spark the fear for more oil?

The price of a barrel of oil surged almost $11 Friday, hitting a new record high of US$139.12 before settling at US$138.47.

Is the spike shorterm? Unlikely, unless India and China stop demanding oil the days of cheap oil (and the decline of sweet oil supplies) will forever keep prices where they are, and then higher.

Oil surged on Thursday, gaining $5.49 a barrel and continued to rise on Friday.

The S&P/TSX index jumped 171.86 points to 15,154.77 in early trading in Toronto Friday. The DOW Average dropped 394.64 points Friday, closing at 12209.81. It was the Dow’s worst day of the year.

The Canadian dollar fell to 98.11 cents US after Statistics Canada reported the national unemployment rate to be holding steady at 6.1 per cent in May. However, 32,200 full-time jobs were lost in May, which were off-set by more part-time employment.

Here are some thoughts from bloggers:

Fire in a chemical plant near an oil refinery in Kuwait, the price of oil goes up.
Unemployment figures up in the US, the price of oil goes up.
Economy strengthens, the price of oil goes up.
Unemployment figures down for the month the price of oil goes up.
Trade surplus down for the month, the price of oil goes up.Trade surpluses up for the month, the price of oil goes up.
Figured out the cause of the problem. It seems that news is the cause of the price hikes.

You mean Mr. Slorer and most other traders are hoping oil goes above $150.

OK lets be honest… the spike in oil has less to do with the US $ and more to do with Financial institutions gambling they can keep artifically raising oil prices to try and offset some of their sub-prime mortgage losses before they have to post year end finanical results.

an executive order saying only those who own or operate refineries can purchase oil futures would put the price back to $80 tomorrow… which is where it belongs based on supply and demand…

put it this way… oil companies are still using $40~$60 for thier long term planning and project evaluation. which is why there havn’t been a slew of annoucements of oil production increasing projects.

any market analyst who says otherwise is trying to protect thier little fiction they’ve managed to get everyone to beleive that oil is actually worth what they’re getting thier investors to pay for it. and why not… thier jobs depend on it.

It’s the oil companies, it’s the government, blah, blah, blah. Just yesterday, I read an article that quoted Jeff Rubin from CIBC World Markets as saying there’s no price manipulation by the market speculators. So why is it that minutes after an analyst predicts $150 by July, the market speculators drive it up to $137? Sounds like the market is trying to ensure that their speculations are correct.

“Analysts believe the dollar’s protracted decline has been a major reason that oil prices have about doubled in the past year.”

What a crock! The greenback has not been overly volatile since the beginning of the year, and yet, oil has risen about $40.00 in that same time frame. I, for one, am getting tired of the same old excuses of “supply and demand”. Inventories have not been hit hard enough to justify the multiple spikes we’ve seen recently.

[tags]Morgan Stanley, oil prices, gas prices, oil fears, speculators[/tags]

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